Author Archives: fpl2013

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Actual Prices vs. Expectations

I’ve ranked all the selected players from too pricey to bargains based on the difference from average expected prices.

According to the price prediction game that we’ve played:
Too cheap: Sanogo, Aspas, Dempsey, Bent, Rooney, Hazard, De Gea, Walcott
Too expensive: RvP, Bony, Papiss, Coutinho, Jesus Navas

Full rankings are here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvWn-PT-iYTHdGotNkxMUFhHTXVaa2lKRUZHSmVsTkE&usp=sharing

Maybe some people will find it useful 😉

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Final results and conclusions

ImagePREDICT THE PRICES 13-14
FINAL RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

With FPL open and new player prices available, the time has come to announce the results.

WINNERS
28 FFS users took part in the competition, the rivalry was intense, nevertheless we have the winner!
It’s Neonpie. 56 correct predictions, 40 minor mistakes of £0.5, 4 mistakes of £1, and a 2 days mistake in the bonus question have secured the first place for him.
Only £2m behind was Pepin, the runner-up. He made 3 more mistakes, the most important of which were undervaluations of City assets: Aguero and Jesus Navas. Goonerbyron and Catriem have matched Pepin’s points for player prices, but being too pessimistic about the FPL opening date has cost them places in the top 3.
Ads by Google came third. Slightly less successful at predicting player prices, he was right on the money with respect to the FPL opening date.

Congratulations and respect to the winners! Please don’t hesitate to reward them with reputation, these guys are real experts in FPL 😉

FULL RESULTS
The final table is here: https://fpl2013.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/final-results/

Detailed results are here:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvWn-PT-iYTHdFJ6dVhfYjRnYVJvU1ZfbmZKMzk2Ync&usp=sharing  (google spreadsheet)

or here:   https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_Wn-PT-iYTHcC1WTmRxZ0J6T1U/edit?usp=sharing  (xlsx file: the same + conditional formatting for better viewing)

CONCLUSIONS
New prices are rather favourable. On average, we have overpriced 59 players and underpriced 39 players.
The competition has also illustrated the force of collective intelligence: had someone submitted the average prices (rounded with the £0.5m precision), he would have matched the result of Neonpie, the winner. The difference between average expectations and actual prices (not rounded) was less than £0.5m for 91 players, and less than £1m for 99 players. The biggest mistake was Yaya Sanogo who has received a price tag of £5m, while we expected £6.3m on average. Comparing to the expectations, Sanogo, Aspas, and Dempsey are priced most favourably, while RvP, Bony, Papiss, Coutinho, and Jesus Navas came in at unexpectedly high prices.

Thanks to everybody for participating and good luck with tinkering 😉

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Predict the Prices 13/14

vanga1

Predict the prices!

Just copy the list below, assign your estimates, and paste in the comments.

Hint: since the list is rather long, it’s convenient to copy it first somewhere else, e.g. to Wordpad, rather than assign prices directly in the comments section

Good luck!

 

Arsenal

  • Monreal
  • Cazorla
  • Walcott
  • Giroud
  • Yaya Sanogo

Aston Villa

  • Luna
  • N’Zogbia
  • Agbonlahor
  • Benteke
  • Bent

Cardiff City

  • Marshall
  • Hudson
  • Whittingham
  • Bellamy
  • Cornelius

Chelsea

  • Azpilicueta
  • David Luiz
  • Hazard
  • Mata
  • Oscar

Crystal Palace

  • Speroni
  • Delaney
  • Bolasie
  • Jedinak
  • Gayle

Everton

  • Baines
  • Coleman
  • Fellaini
  • Mirallas
  • Kone

Fulham

  • Stekelenburg
  • Amorebieta
  • Hangeland
  • Ruiz
  • Berbatov

Hull City

  • Chester
  • Figueroa
  • Elmohamady
  • Koren
  • Aluko

Liverpool

  • Sturridge
  • Coutinho
  • Enrique
  • Suarez
  • Aspas

Manchester City

  • Kompany
  • David Silva
  • Yaya Toure
  • Jesus Navas
  • Aguero

Manchester United

  • De Gea
  • Johnny Evans
  • RvP
  • Rooney
  • Kagawa

Norwich City

  • Ruddy
  • Russell Martin
  • Snodgrass
  • Pilkington
  • Wolfswinkel

Newcastle United

  • Krul
  • Debuchy
  • Ben Arfa
  • Cabaye
  • Papiss Cisse

Southampton

  • Shaw
  • Clyne
  • Puncheon
  • Ramirez
  • Lambert

Stoke City

  • Begovic
  • Shawcross
  • Adam
  • Etherington
  • Walters

Sunderland

  • Mannone
  • Adam Johnson
  • Sessegnon
  • Fletcher
  • Altidore

Swansea City

  • Vorm
  • Ben Davies
  • Michu
  • Shelvey
  • Bony Wilfried

Tottenham

  • Walker
  • Verthongen
  • Bale
  • Paulinho
  • Dempsey

West Bromwich

  • Foster
  • McAuley
  • Morrison
  • Brunt
  • Long

West Ham

  • Jaaskelainen
  • Demel
  • Rat
  • Nolan
  • Carroll

BONUS QUESTION

When will FPL open this year? Predict the day!

(scoring for this question: 1 day error = 1£)