data source: http://fantasypl.com/2013/07/25/wildcards/
Actual Prices vs. Expectations
I’ve ranked all the selected players from too pricey to bargains based on the difference from average expected prices.
According to the price prediction game that we’ve played:
Too cheap: Sanogo, Aspas, Dempsey, Bent, Rooney, Hazard, De Gea, Walcott
Too expensive: RvP, Bony, Papiss, Coutinho, Jesus Navas
Full rankings are here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvWn-PT-iYTHdGotNkxMUFhHTXVaa2lKRUZHSmVsTkE&usp=sharing
Maybe some people will find it useful 😉
Final results and conclusions
PREDICT THE PRICES 13-14
FINAL RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
With FPL open and new player prices available, the time has come to announce the results.
WINNERS
28 FFS users took part in the competition, the rivalry was intense, nevertheless we have the winner!
It’s Neonpie. 56 correct predictions, 40 minor mistakes of £0.5, 4 mistakes of £1, and a 2 days mistake in the bonus question have secured the first place for him.
Only £2m behind was Pepin, the runner-up. He made 3 more mistakes, the most important of which were undervaluations of City assets: Aguero and Jesus Navas. Goonerbyron and Catriem have matched Pepin’s points for player prices, but being too pessimistic about the FPL opening date has cost them places in the top 3.
Ads by Google came third. Slightly less successful at predicting player prices, he was right on the money with respect to the FPL opening date.
Congratulations and respect to the winners! Please don’t hesitate to reward them with reputation, these guys are real experts in FPL 😉
FULL RESULTS
The final table is here: https://fpl2013.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/final-results/
Detailed results are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvWn-PT-iYTHdFJ6dVhfYjRnYVJvU1ZfbmZKMzk2Ync&usp=sharing (google spreadsheet)
or here:  https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_Wn-PT-iYTHcC1WTmRxZ0J6T1U/edit?usp=sharing (xlsx file: the same + conditional formatting for better viewing)
CONCLUSIONS
New prices are rather favourable. On average, we have overpriced 59 players and underpriced 39 players.
The competition has also illustrated the force of collective intelligence: had someone submitted the average prices (rounded with the £0.5m precision), he would have matched the result of Neonpie, the winner. The difference between average expectations and actual prices (not rounded) was less than £0.5m for 91 players, and less than £1m for 99 players. The biggest mistake was Yaya Sanogo who has received a price tag of £5m, while we expected £6.3m on average. Comparing to the expectations, Sanogo, Aspas, and Dempsey are priced most favourably, while RvP, Bony, Papiss, Coutinho, and Jesus Navas came in at unexpectedly high prices.
Thanks to everybody for participating and good luck with tinkering 😉
Final Table
Predict the Prices 13/14
Predict the prices!
Just copy the list below, assign your estimates, and paste in the comments.
Hint: since the list is rather long, it’s convenient to copy it first somewhere else, e.g. to Wordpad, rather than assign prices directly in the comments section
Good luck!
Arsenal
- Monreal
- Cazorla
- Walcott
- Giroud
- Yaya Sanogo
Aston Villa
- Luna
- N’Zogbia
- Agbonlahor
- Benteke
- Bent
Cardiff City
- Marshall
- Hudson
- Whittingham
- Bellamy
- Cornelius
Chelsea
- Azpilicueta
- David Luiz
- Hazard
- Mata
- Oscar
Crystal Palace
- Speroni
- Delaney
- Bolasie
- Jedinak
- Gayle
Everton
- Baines
- Coleman
- Fellaini
- Mirallas
- Kone
Fulham
- Stekelenburg
- Amorebieta
- Hangeland
- Ruiz
- Berbatov
Hull City
- Chester
- Figueroa
- Elmohamady
- Koren
- Aluko
Liverpool
- Sturridge
- Coutinho
- Enrique
- Suarez
- Aspas
Manchester City
- Kompany
- David Silva
- Yaya Toure
- Jesus Navas
- Aguero
Manchester United
- De Gea
- Johnny Evans
- RvP
- Rooney
- Kagawa
Norwich City
- Ruddy
- Russell Martin
- Snodgrass
- Pilkington
- Wolfswinkel
Newcastle United
- Krul
- Debuchy
- Ben Arfa
- Cabaye
- Papiss Cisse
Southampton
- Shaw
- Clyne
- Puncheon
- Ramirez
- Lambert
Stoke City
- Begovic
- Shawcross
- Adam
- Etherington
- Walters
Sunderland
- Mannone
- Adam Johnson
- Sessegnon
- Fletcher
- Altidore
Swansea City
- Vorm
- Ben Davies
- Michu
- Shelvey
- Bony Wilfried
Tottenham
- Walker
- Verthongen
- Bale
- Paulinho
- Dempsey
West Bromwich
- Foster
- McAuley
- Morrison
- Brunt
- Long
West Ham
- Jaaskelainen
- Demel
- Rat
- Nolan
- Carroll
BONUS QUESTION
When will FPL open this year? Predict the day!
(scoring for this question: 1 day error = 1£)